The mortality rate of Bengaluru at 1.5% is better than the Karnataka and national averages.
In a positive sign for Bengaluru despite the daily increase in COVID-19 cases, both the positivity rate and mortality rate of the disease have decreased compared to what they were a month ago. Positivity rate is the percentage of patients testing positive per 100 tests while the mortality rate is the number of persons dying per 100 positive patients. In fact, the mortality rate of Bengaluru at 1.5% is better than that the state average (1.7%) and the national average (1.8%), as per the State COVID-19 War Room report of August 30 (data as of Aug 29). Though the positivity rate continues to remain higher at 15.11% while the state average is at 12% and the national average is 9%, there has been a decline of 2.23% in the positivity rate compared to July. Dr Giridhar Babu, an epidemiologist with the Public Health Foundation of India, who is part of expert committees formed by both the state and the Centre said, “Bengaluru is fairly in a good position given the number of cases are growing at a staggering pace.” He attributed the improvement in the numbers to the increase in testing and surveillance activity, but he stressed that testing has to be improved further qualitatively and quantitatively. “We should not worry about any numbers now as almost everything has opened up (lockdown relaxations), except for the death rate. Nobody should take credit for reporting fewer cases; rather priority should be to detect vulnerable cases early. As long as the cases grow at a pace that does not overburden the system, it should be fine. Ideally, the positivity rate should be less than 5% as recommended by the WHO,” Dr Babu said. Dr Pradeep Banandur, an epidemiologist at NIMHANS (National Institute of Mental Health And Neurological Sciences) who is working closely with the state health department, said that the improvement in allocating beds with time and better treatment modules coupled with the awareness of early testing has improved the situation. “People are being detected early and this means they can be treated early. More importantly, there is enough evidence now to state that maintaining oxygen saturation and provisioning oxygen instead of going for mechanical ventilation or intubation saves more lives. So I think with improved knowledge of how to treat people and an improved treatment protocol is helping us manage better than other states,” he told TNM. Data details Cases in Bengaluru have been rising at least in excess of 2,000 cases every day for the last 10 days since August 20 with an average of around 22,000 people getting tested each day. As of August 29, as per the data, Bengaluru had 1,27,263 cumulative positive cases while the number was 53,324 on July 29. The number of total fatalities on July 29 was 1,010 and the same on August 29 are 1,939. With this, the mortality rate of COVID-19 in Bengaluru was at 2.77% while the positivity rate was at 17.34% on July 29. On August 29, the mortality rate is now at 1.52% and the positivity rate is at 15.11%. This improvement in positivity rate is observed after Bengaluru witnessed a steady increase in the number of cases due to ramping up of testing since June. The positivity rate in Bengaluru at the end of May was 1.17%, and 17.34% on June 29. The spike can be explained with the stark difference of positivity rate in the month of June (6.91%) and July (24.15%). Unlike the positivity rate, the mortality rate has been on a gradual decline since the end of May. On May 31, the mortality rate was 3.11%, and on July 29 it was 2.77% and is 1.52% as of August 29. Increased testing, early detection of cases and other medical interventions ensured that the mortality rate for the months of June (1.69%) and July (1.85%) did not increase significantly.
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