Experts say the number of positive cases is not a good marker to gauge the COVID-19 situation.
Representational image/PTI
With the continuing rise in daily COVID-19 cases in Karnataka, the state crossed the six-lakh mark for cumulative positive cases on Wednesday. At the end of Wednesday, the number of cases in Karnataka and Bengaluru were 6,01,767 and 2,32,663 respectively. With this Bengaluru also has the second highest number of cases among Indian metros after Delhi while Karnataka has the third highest number of cases among states after Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. These unenviable milestones came after Tuesday, when both Bengaluru and Karnataka saw the highest ever daily increase of COVID-19 cases since the onset of pandemic on March 8. While statewide the number of cases rose by 10,453 for the day, in Bengaluru the cases rose by 4,868. But experts say that while the situation is far from ideal, comparing the number of positive cases in isolation will paint a false picture of the situation. This is because higher positive cases may be a result of higher testing. Instead, epidemiologists say that the two metrics that should be compared are the positivity rate and the case fatality rate (CFR). While WHO recommends keeping the positivity rate to below 5%, the Union Government has aimed to bring CFR to below 1%. Speaking with TNM, Dr Giridhar Babu, part of the Union government’s COVID-19 research task force on Epidemiology and Surveillance and also part of Karnataka’s Technical Committee, said no state or city should claim credit for recording a low number of cases. “Instead the testing strategy should be questioned if there are a low number of cases, as it is highly likely cases are being missed and this would lead to deaths. Now with restrictions mostly eased, it would be difficult to stop the rise in cases, so we should focus on saving lives and that can happen only when cases are detected early,” he said. He added India became a world leader in polio eradication following this strategy where surveillance measures were strengthened when districts did not report an expected minimum number of infections per unit population. Positivity rate of 1% means 1 out of every 100 people tested is positive for the virus. Lower the positivity rate means lower the spread of the infection, experts consider. CFR on the other hand is the measure of the number of deaths per 100 positive cases. Positivity, fatality rate among cities (As of end of September) When it comes to the three top cities with high number of cases, Delhi even though it has the highest number of cases, the national capital has a lower positivity rate than Mumbai and Bengaluru. When it comes to mortality, Bengaluru fares best with the lowest CFR of 1.26% followed by Delhi’s 1.92%. Mumbai fares much worse at 4.35%. Positivity, the fatality rate among states (As of end of September) Among states, Karnataka and Andhra have a positivity rate of 12% as against Maharashtra, which is 20%. Andhra Pradesh has the lowest fatality rate with less than 1 death per 100 positive patients, while Maharashtra has a high fatality rate of 2.65%.
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