Bengaluru has seen a slight increase in CFR of COVID-19 cases bucking the trend of a steady dip on a month-on-month basis since July.
Since the start of December, Bengaluru has seen a slight increase in case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 cases bucking the trend of a steady dip on a month-on-month basis since July. CFR is a measure of the number of deaths for every 100 positive cases. This even as the positivity rate which had also spiked in July, had maintained its steady decline in December on a month-on-month basis. Positivity rate is defined as the number of positive cases for every 100 tests. According to data tabled by the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike COVID-19 War Room, the CFR for December so far is at 1.08% which is slightly higher than that of 0.85% of November. In fact, since the onset of the pandemic in March, only July had seen a rise in CFR to 1.85% from 1.69% in June. Otherwise since April, the CFR had always dropped from the previous month. But experts deem this slight increase to be insignificant and deem this to be a non-issue. Commenting on this, Dr Trilok Chandra, senior IAS officer, heading the COVID-19 Critical Care Support Committee, said, “It is not that in true numbers the number of deaths have increased. Since the numerator has come down dramatically, that is actually leading to a scenario where the CFR is reflecting higher. The number of admission in ICUs (intensive care units) or total number of daily cases are dropping.” Dr Pradeep Banandur, an epidemiologist at NIMHANS (National Institute of Mental Health And Neurological Sciences) also thinks this is not a reason to worry. “As of now, there is no cause for alarm as the increase is not statistically significant and it is known to fluctuate in this way and these ups and downs are likely to occur but the overall trend is downwards.” Cumulatively since the onset of the pandemic, Bengaluru has a CFR of 1.11% (lowest compared to New Delhi, Mumbai, and Chennai) while the state average is at 1.3% and the national average is at 1.5%. The target CFR set by the union government is 1%. Cumulatively, the positivity rate in Bengaluru is at 7.1% which is also the lowest compared to New Delhi, Mumbai, and Chennai. According to a section of experts, positivity and fatality rates are a true reflection of the infection scenario as the number of cases may remain low due to a low number of tests conducted. Case in point, while Bengaluru has the second highest number of cases compared to New Delhi, Mumbai, and Chennai, it has the lowest positivity rate and CFR.
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